Pouring over stats and noticing the progression of Adam Dunn's career I can't help but wonder if he might have a chance at that record that in my opinion is still held by our friend Henry.
Now I know what you are saying, there is no way Adam Dunn could break the all time home run record. But I beg you to look at many factors attributing to Dunn's ever-building pile of homers.
First Dunn is only 27 years old, soon to be 28 in November. As it stands right now he has 272 HR's and will probably close the year with close to 280.
Second Dunn is working on his fifth year in a row of at least 150 games and has had only one trip to the DL at the end of last year.
Third of all the players in baseball, Dunn is one who can be predicted in Lindy's guide perfectly before every season. Dunn posts 40 HR, 100 RBI, 100 runs every year at least and you can count on him doing that for another 8 years at least.
So say in eight years Dunn's HR total will be at least 600. And he will only be 35. Now guessing from his size and how much of a liability he is on defense now, he may deteriorate faster than a smaller player. But he may not and it is not out of the question for Dunn to have over 600 HR 8 years from today.
And assuming he is a Jim Thome-DH type by then Dunn should seemingly play for a much longer time and with the way players are playing later and later into their lives (ex. Jamie Moyer) who's to say Dunn can't play into his 40's.
To think the Reds traded him now makes me a little sick if they expected him to be something he wasn't. He is without a doubt due for a big pay day and coupled with the let down of Dunn's 'attitude' the Reds were destined to not keep him.
But think about how reliable Dunn has been and yet again how consistent he has been. Consider that within a couple weeks the Reds may have traded two of the top five HR sluggers of all time.
Posted by nathan at 2:57:00 PM